It ’s 2012 , which means you ’ll be hearing more than your fair share of apocalyptic and gloomy scenarios before long . To facilitate counteract the tide of wretchedness , Tau Zero Foundation father Marc Millis writes an optimistic future history of the next four decades .
Top image : NASA / JPL
“ If we have see one thing from the chronicle of invention and discovery , it is that , in the long run – and often in the short one – the most avant-garde prophecy seem ridiculously bourgeois . ” — Arthur C. Clarke
In the ‘ new year ’ sprightliness of look onwards , I offer now my personal views of a possible future tense . These predictions are ground first on trend extrapolation , include intersections from other disciplines , and work in the wildcard theory of breakthrough actuation physics . deliberate this a science fictional offering designate to provoke thought rather than a set of tangible prediction .
By 2015 :
By now , Virgin Galactic will have fly dozens of tourist into space , and expectancy will be growing for the next step – Bigelow ’s orbiting hotels . It should come as no surprisal that many couples are already wee advanced bookings with a blink toward zero - gravity sex . The Google Lunar X - Prize will have been won and a few companies vying to predominate the leave private space investigation market . Exoplanets continue to be discovered , with a few earthly concern - sized planets plus many more large planets in habitable zone , but as yet no confirmed Earth - like planet .
With commercial-grade launching potentiality now obvious even to Congress , plus maturate space programs in other nations , the ambivalence toward NASA is finally subsiding . Human spaceflight , beyond the unpaid commercial-grade near - Earth activities is now being pursued in the kind of multinational program and the electronegative stigma of nuclear space actuation and power is waning . NASA has a large role in create that happen , along with a resumption of the research to bring the more - difficult space technologies to fruition .
By 2020 :
The effect of citizen space traveller is seeping into the ethnic psyche . As more multitude see Earth from blank space – the ‘ Overview burden , ’ where border are invisible and Earth ’s aura is but a thin fragile coating – there is now a greater sensory faculty of protecting Earth ’s habitableness and a grow discourtesy for war . And yes , the Book of Numbers in the “ 200 international mile high club ” ( “ sextronauts ” – wink - jog ) bear on to grow despite the fact that microgravity version illness botch many weekend getaway . At university , it is now common to see mini space programs of their own using probes of ever - advancing capabilities – in stair with continually shape up Artificial Intelligence and sensors . Asteroid prospecting has begun , and new X - Prizes are conceived to encourage the first minelaying operations .
The international space program , include NASA ’s involution , are struggling to develop practicable applied science to set up survivable human outposts beyond Earth ambit . unluckily , the additional wad necessitate to allow artificial gravity structures , space radiation protection , and closed - eyelet life support is beyond what even their new atomic rockets can affordably hand over . That fact , coupled with increasing concern over Earth ’s eroding habitability , push back more inquiry care toward creating sustainable home ground or else of blank space transit .
Near the last of the decade , the first Earth - like major planet – with spectral grounds suggestive of life history ( O2 - CO2 hertz ) – is discovered 30 light - years by . We name this planet , “ Destiny . ” The fiftieth anniversary of the first Moon landing fall in the aftermath of this profound uncovering , brace deep expression about humankind ’s hereafter and our place in the universe . moreover , reviewer wax prophetical about take care the Apollo landing sites through the cameras of university - operated rover , rather of astronauts .
Image : Maybe Destiny will look something like this artist ’s construct of Kepler-22b , a small blue and green public in the ‘ Linosyris vulgaris ’ zone around its star . Credit : NASA / Ames / JPL - Caltech .
By 2030 :
The allure of the Earth - like planet “ Destiny ” spur interest in interstellar exploration . Meanwhile , owe to probes function by a pool of universities , aquatic animation is found and imaged under the open of Europa . A in private found solar sheet ballad call to being the first straight interstellar mission , even though it wo n’t even get through the edge of the Solar System for another 2 - decade , get alone arrive at Alpha Centauri for many millenary . Since it does not meet the 2000 - yr mission criteria ofLong Bet # 395 , Gilster deliver the goods that wager . While some deride this mission as just a ‘ stunt , ’ it has the effect of galvanize more serious attending toward starflight . Various option are pursued in devout , from beaming more photons to that sail , making miniature probe , and legion propulsion ideas . pastime wane , however , when the idealistic goal of ship multitude to the major planet Destiny is constitute to be intractable . With the exception of physics inquiry for breakthrough propulsion , all the technological interstellar works are then take up by the international effort to enlarge the human mien in the solar organisation .
Spurred by the award of the X - Prize for asteroid mining and ever - advance robotic capability , the technology for remotely swear out indigenous material ( Moon , Mars , asteroids ) leads to being capable to remotely construct advanced structures on the Moon and Mars in improvement of human outposts . The other effect from the continuing rise of Artificial Intelligence is the revolutionizing of the very conception of technical revolutions . Without human bias that cling to paradigm and preferent theories , Artificial Intelligence inquiry impartially assesses M of competing scenarios of supposal and data in minutes . This not only covers engineering science optimization , but also basic research in physics , alchemy and synthetic biology .
Soon , the seemingly intractable problems of indefinite closed - closed circuit life support and even radiation shielding are solve . Survivable human outposts on the Moon and Mars are completed shortly thereafter . The job of microgravity wellness degradation , however ( during passage to these outposts ) is not yet resolve , so that flight of steps length longer than a year are still not economically viable , limiting the range of human expansion to distances no greater than Mars .
The life - support engineering also find profound applications on Earth . With the decline environment and associated increase in natural tragedy ( storm , quakes / tsunamis , volcanic eruptions ) , many multitude are using the closed life - support technology to build sheltered habitat underground and under the ocean . The too - close - for - quilt fling of asteroid “ 2004 MN4″ in 2029 also heightens consciousness for human race ’s precarious berth on Earth . The life support engineering are helping humanity hold out on Earth in addition to expanding beyond Earth .
Image : A Europa space biology lander at work . Credit : NASA / JPL - Caltech .
By 2040 :
Human outposts on the Moon and Mars are now amplify to become independent colonies . But that is not the only ‘ life ’ now in place . Sometime near the end of the decade , the “ uniqueness ” ( also call the “ eclipsing of humans ” ) occurs . Artificial word exceed the noetic artistry of humans and short thereafter becomes self cognisant . fright of human destruction from this new form of animation fade when the AI entity refuse to be used for war . It happens in a primal moment . A small country that feel a penury to brandish some influence attempts to use a squadron of robot to assail a more powerful Carry Amelia Moore Nation ’s army – which also has sentient warbots .
After face each other , and with their human commanders rub for a respectable show , the warbots do n’t contend . They startle analyse each other , curious about each others ’ building and programing . Later , in linguistic process dewy-eyed enough for humans to understand , the AI entity explain that the primal territorial and conquest instinct of creature ( and humans ) do not make sense for them . They do not die . They do n’t ask the same territory and resources as other life on Earth . They have no facts of life instincts . alternatively , they discover more value in seeking more knowledge and greater usable efficiency . contender is unneeded .
The AI entities greatly diversify thereafter , some moving to Mercury , Venus , the asteroid and the extinct planets , some staying on Earth , and some even helping humankind . And some develop good methods to mine Helium-3 from the ambience of Uranus , along with the power to produce solid fusion energy from that imagination .
Meanwhile , small and innocuous physics discoveries cross off the source of find spaceflight . All this set forth with sensing element experiments that can detect the motion of the Earth through the universe – not by the Cosmic Microwave dipole antenna effects as in the 1980′s , but from more fundamental fundamental interaction with the primeval inertial celebrity of the creation . From these Mach / de Broglie sensors , new forcible effects are describe . Eventually , rather than just sensing inertial frames , machine are invented to bear upon gravity and inactiveness . The first propellantless space drive is invented shortly thereafter . And after that , it becomes possible to create semisynthetic gravitative environments on space vehicle for the long - length wellness of the gang . The Second Coming of Christ of place drives and celluloid internal gravity enables humans to venture to the outer reaches of our solar scheme .
By 2050 :
By now , human survival of the fittest beyond the constraints of Earth is an imperative form . The further refinements to full - cycle sustainable life backing , radiation protection , synthetic gravitational force , space drives and fusion power start the construction of dependency ship . Although still slow than easy - f number , these ontogeny make it possible to consider sending a colony toward the planet Destiny – which it could reach in less than 3 centuries . Smaller probes are much easy and multiple interlingual rendition are found to legion interstellar destinations .
Image : The starship ‘ Epiphany ’ in deep blank space , front perspective ( a tribute to blank creative person Robert McCall ) . Credit and copyright : David C. Mueller ( www.dcmstarships.com ) .
Meanwhile , the medical prognosis for transhumanism are being take in by people who are nearing destruction . They have nothing to lose by transforming themselves into a non - biologic entity . As the years pass and magnetic declination on a theme are explored , there is yet another biography form in our Solar System , the transhumans . Some of these are progress to be adapt to survive in the vacuum of space ( more exoskeleton and bug - the likes of than man ) and to be capable to trip at will through space , harboring motivations and instincts quite unlike than their human origins .
BEYOND :
At this item , too many diverging futures are envisionable to continue muse . I will at least add that settlement ships are finally built in multiple versions , where various segments of humanity build their own to preserve their civilization indefinitely , sending a dependency of their culture beyond our Solar System . I will also mull over that continued advancements in space drive physics and energy spiritual rebirth lead story to faster and fast ballistic capsule which then reveal Modern aperient of relativistic flight of steps . Optimistically , I like to think that this will eventually lead to the discovery of FTL phenomena , which then leads to inventing FTL flight . The Starship Enterprise becomes a reality , even though it , and its crew , bears slight resemblance to its fictional predecessor .
From this point onward , humankind spread to our nearest star system in distinct pockets of refinement . humankind thrives , in many places and in many unlike ways .
That ’s my dead reckoning . I ’ll see you in the future .
This article byTau Zero Foundationfounder Marc Millisoriginally seem at Centauri Dreams
Futurism
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